Pot Odds Poker Explained
- Setting HUD to display pot odds Hi, New member question (had HM1 years ago, just trialing HM3 now playing poker again) which I can't find the answer to using the forum search feature / FAQ's / Google.
- In poker there are good bets and bad bets – the game is simply a way of determining who can tell the difference. This is where the concept of pot odds comes into play. Put simply, pot odds means is there enough in the pot to call a bet. The fundamental principle of playing a drawing hand in poker is that you need a pot big enough to call.
- Pot odds are simply the odds that the pot is giving you on your play. For example, if the pot is $10 and it costs you $2 to call, you are getting 5:1 (spoken “5 to 1”) pot odds. In this instance, it costs you $2 for the chance to win $10.
Pot odds is a fundamental and mathematical concept used in poker. Before you understand what pot odds are, take a look at the options below: Option A: If you risk 1 cookie, you will get 2 cookies. Let me explain a bit further. Pot Odds added together means replace the “to” with a plus sign eg: 3 to 1 becomes 3+1 = 4. So in the example above our pot odds are 3 to 1 so our Break Even Percentage = 100% divided by 4 = 25%. Note – This only works if you express your pot odds against a factor of 1 eg: “3 to 1” or “5 to 1” etc.
Poker in 2018 is as competitive as it has ever been. Long gone are the days of being able to print money playing a basic ABC strategy.
Today your average winning poker player has many tricks in their bags and tools in their arsenals. Imagine a soldier going into the heat of battle. Without his weapons, he is practically useless, and chances of survival are extremely low.
If you sit down at a poker table without any preparation or general understanding of poker fundamentals, the sharks are going to eat you alive. Sure you may get lucky once in a blue moon, but over the long term, things won’t end well.
With the evolution of poker strategy, you now have many tools at your disposal. Whether it be online poker training sites, free YouTube content, poker coaching, or poker vlogs, there’s no excuse to be a fish in today's game.
Some of the essential fundamentals you need to be utilizing that every poker player should have in their bag of tricks whether you are a Tournament or Cash Game Player are concepts such as hand combinations (Also known as hand combinatorics or hand combos).
Hand Combinations and Hand Reading
If you were to analyze a large sample of successful poker players you would notice that they all have one skill set in common: Hand Reading
What does hand reading have to do with hand combinations you might ask?
Well, poker is a game of deduction and to be a good hand reader, you need to be good at correctly ranging your opponents.
Once you have assigned them a range, you will then need to start narrowing that range down. Combinatorics is one of the ways we do this.
So what is combinatorics? It may sound like rocket science and it is definitely a bit more complex than some other poker concepts, but once you get the hang of combinatorics it will take your game to the next level.
Combinatorics is essentially understanding how many combos each of your opponent's potential holdings are and deducing their potential holdings utilizing concepts such as removal and blockers.
There are 52 cards in a deck, 13 of each suit, and 4 of each rank with 1326 poker hands in total. To simplify things just focus on memorizing all of the potential combos to start:
- 16 possible hand combinations of every unpaired hand
- 12 combinations of every unpaired offsuit hand
- 4 combinations of each suited hand
- 6 possible combinations of pocket pairs
Here is a short video example of using combinatorics to count the number of ways a non-paired hand AK can be arranged (i.e. how many combos there are):
So now that we have this memorized, let's look at a hand example and how we can apply combinatorics in game.
We hold A♣Q♣ in the SB and 3bet the BTN’s open to 10bb with 100bb stacks. He flats and we go heads up to a flop of
A♠ 5♦ 4♦
We check and our opponent checks back with 21bb in the middle
Turn is the 4♥
We bet 10bb and our opponent calls for a total pot of 41bb
The river brings the 9♠
So the final board reads
A♠ 5♦ 4♦ 4♥ 9♠
We bet 21bb and our opponent jams all in leaving us with 59bb to call into a pot of 162bb resulting in needing at least 36% pot equity to win.
Our opponent is representing a polarized range here. He is either nutted or representing missed draws so we find ourself in a tough spot. This is where utilizing combinatorics to deduce his value hands vs bluffs come into play. Now we need to narrow down his range given our line and his line. Let's take a look at how we do this...
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Blockers and Card Removal Effects
First, let's take a look at the hands we BLOCK and DON’T BLOCK
Since we hold an Ace in our hand and there is an Ace on the board, that only leaves 2 Ace’s left in the deck. So there is exactly 1 combo of AA.
We BLOCK most of the Aces he can be holding, so we can REMOVE some Aces from his range.
We do not BLOCK the A♦ as we hold A♣Q♣, and the A on the board is a spade, so it is still possible for him to have some A♦x♦ hands.
We checked flop to add strength to our check call range (although a bet with a plan to triple barrel is equally valid in this situation SB vs BTN) and because of this our opponent may not put us on an A here.
If he is a thinking player his jam can exploit our thin value bet on the river turning his missed straight/flush draws into a bluff to get us to fold our big pocket pairs and even make it a tough call with our perceived weak holdings.
The problem in giving him significant credit for this part of his bluffing range is the question of would he really shove here with good SDV (Showdown Value)?
These are the types of questions we must ask ourselves to further deduce his range along with applying the combinatoric information we now have.
Now, let's look at all the nutted Ax hands our opponent can have.
If he has a nutted hand like A4 or A5, and we assume he is only calling 3bets with Axs type hands, the only suited combo of those hands he can have are exactly A♥5♥. He can’t have A♦5♦ or A♦4♦ because the 4 and the 5 are both diamonds on the board blocks these hands.
Lets take a look at all of this value hands:
There is only 1 combo of 44 left in the deck, 2 combos of A9s, 3 Combos of 55, 3 Combos of 99, 2 Combos of 45s - some of these hands may also be bet on the flop when facing a check.
So to recap we have:
1 Combo A5s, 2 Combos of A9s, 3 Combos of 55 (With one 5 on board, the number of combinations of 55 are cut in half from 6 combos to 3 combos), 1 Combo of 44, 2 Combos of 45s, 3 Combos of 99
Total: 12 Value Combos
Now we need to look at our opponent's potential bluffs
Based on the villain's image, this is the range of bluffs we assigned him:
K♦Q♦(1 Combo), J♦T♦ (1 Combo), T♦9♦ (1 Combo), 67s (4 Combos)
He may also turn some other random hands with little showdown value into bluffs such as A♦2♦/A♦3♦
Total: 9 Bluff Combos
9(Bluff Combos) + 12(Value Combos) = 22
9/21 = 42% of the time our opponent will be bluffing (assuming he always bets this entire range)
11/21 = 58% of the time our opponent will be value raising
Now, this is the range we assigned him in game based on the action and what we perceived our opponents range to be.
We are not always correct in applying the exact range of his potential holdings, but so long as you are in the ballpark of that range you can still make quite a few deductions to put yourself in the position to make the correct final decision.
According to the range we assigned him, he has 11 Value Combos and 9 Bluff Combos which gives us equity of 42%. This would result in a positive expected value call as we only need 36% pot odds to call.
However, unless you are playing against very tough opponents you will not see someone bluffing all 9 combos we have assigned - most likely they will bluff in the range of 4-6 combos on average which gives equity in the range of 20-30% equity. This is not enough to call.
We ultimately made our decision based on the fact that we felt our opponent was much less likely to jam with his bluffs in this spot. Given that it was already a close decision to begin with, we managed to find what ended up being the correct fold.
Now this all may seem a bit overwhelming, but if you just start taking an extra minute on your big decisions you’d be surprised how quickly you can actually process all this information on this spot.
A good starting point is to simply memorize all of the possible hand combinations listed above near the beginning of the article.
Get access to our 30-minute lesson on Combinatorics and PokerStove by clicking on one of the buttons below:
Conclusion On Combinatorics
Eventually accounting for your opponent's combos in a hand will become second nature. To get to the point that , a lot of the work needs to be done off the table and in the lab. As you spend more time studying it and reviewing hand histories like the one above, you will find yourself intuitively and almost subconsciously using combinatorics in your decision making tree.
But the work will be worth the effort, as being able to count combos on the fly will add a new dimension to your game, allow you to make more educated decisions, become a tougher opponent to play against and move away from playing ABC poker.
Want more content like the ones in this blog post on poker combinatorics? Check out our Road to Success Course where we have almost 100 videos like this to help take your game to the next level. You can also get the first module of the Road To Success Course for Free - for more details see the free poker training videos page by TopPokerValue.com.
Pot odds is a fundamental and mathematical concept used in poker. Before you understand what pot odds are, take a look at the options below:
Option A: If you risk 1 cookie, you will get 2 cookies.
Option B: If you risk 1 cookie, you will get 5 cookies.
Which option will you choose? Definitely option B. You get 5 cookies for risking 1 cookie!
What if I replace cookie with 1 million dollars? How will it look like?
Option A: If you risk $1 million, you will get $2 million.
Option B: If you risk $1 million, you will get $5 million.
Notice any difference? The values have changed, but the ratio between the reward and risk is still the same. If you have noticed this difference, you have already grasped the meaning of pot odds!
So, without any further ado, let’s delve into the fundamental concept in poker!
What are Pot Odds in Poker?
Poker pot odds are a mathematical expression of risk and reward. Pot odds tell you how much do you need to risk in order to win a reward. It is the ratio between the reward and the risk.
Reward = Pot to be Won
The pot can be at any point of the game – preflop, flop, turn or river.
Risk = How much you need to risk in order to win the pot
The risk is the size of someone’s bet/raise/re-raise you are facing. It is the amount you need to call in order to win the pot.
Pot odds = Reward : Risk
It is the ratio of the size of the pot (reward) to the amount you have to call (risk).
For example:
If there is $6 in the pot and your opponent bets $3, the pot becomes $9. In order to win the pot of $9, you need to call $3. So, what are the odds?
Reward = $9 (Size of the Pot)
Risk = $3 (Size of the Call)
Pot Odds = $9(Reward):$3(Risk)
= 9:3, which can be simplified to 3:1
Hence, the pot odds are 3:1. You can look at these odds in two ways.
- You need to pay 1/3 of the pot for a chance to win the whole pot
- You will get 3X the reward of your risk
Poker Pot Odds Example
Alert! This can be a bit mathematical but an easy hack to learn the odds quickly is available right after the example.
So, have some patience and continue reading…
Pot Odds Poker Explained Against
In this example, we will not be looking at the hole cards so that you are solely focussed on the concept of poker odds.
Here’s the situation: You are on the Button in a $1/$2 6-max game. The Under the Gun (UTG) calls $2. The Middle Position (MP) raises to $5. Let’s calculate the pot odds.
If you don’t know what positions are, go through this: Poker Positions Explained
Preflop
Total pot (Reward) = $1 (small blind) +$2 (big blind) + $2 (UTG’s call) + $5 (MP’s raise)
= $10
Amount to Call (Risk) = $5
Pot Odds = $10 (Reward):$5 (Risk)
= 2:1
Pot Odds Poker Explained Poker
You decide to call, and others fold. The total pot is now $15 ($10 in the pot + $5 your call)
Flop
On the flop, the MP makes a half-size pot bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $15 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $22.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Pot Odds = $22.5:$7.5
= 3:1
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $30 ($22.5 in the pot +$7.5 your call).
Turn
On the turn, the MP makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $30 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $37.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Pot Odds = $37.5:$7.5
= 5:1
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $45 ($37.5 in the pot + $7.5 your call).
River
On the river, the MP makes a full pot-size bet of $45. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $45 (already in the pot) + $45 (MP’s bet)
= $90
Amount to Call = $45
Pot Odds = $90:$45
= 2:1
The pot odds on the river is now 2:1. So, if you call, you will get 2X the reward for your call.
As you can see, the odds increase or decrease on different streets. By using the poker odds, you get a clear picture of the reward you will earn for the risk you take.
A Shortcut to Know Your Pot Odds
An easy way to know the odds is to know how much is in the pot and the percentage of the pot your opponent bets.
- What’s the Pot Size?
- What Percentage of the Pot is Your Opponent Betting?
For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $25, you can say that he is making a 1/4 pot-size bet or he is betting 25% of the pot.
You can save this chart or print it and paste it on a wall next to your computer.
Why are Pot Odds used in Poker?
Pot odds tell you the ratio between the reward and the risk. It helps you to understand how much you need to risk to win the reward. But the real question is, “Is it worth the risk?” For that, you need to compare your card odds with the pot odds.
What are Card Odds?
It is the ratio of cards in the deck that you don’t want to the cards that you want. In other words, it is the ratio of unwanted cards and outs. If you don’t know what outs are, you can click here: How to Calculate Outs in Poker.
Card Odds = Cards we don’t need : Cards we need
Let’s look at the example below to understand this concept better:
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Flop: 8♦ K♣ 2♦
Your opponent bets $25 into a pot of $100. The total pot is $125. You need to call $25 for a chance to win $125.
So, the pot odds are $125:$25 or 5:1.
In this scenario, you have 9 outs to complete your flush draw. Let’s calculate the odds now.
- A deck has 52 cards.
- We know 5 cards out of those 52 cards – Our 2 Hole Cards and 3 cards on the Flop.
- 52 – 5 = 47. There are 47 cards in the deck that we don’t know.
- There are 9 outs that will help us to make the flush. We need those 9 cards (outs).
- 47 – 9 = 38. We don’t need those 38 cards.
- Card Odds = Cards we don’t need : Cards we need
- Card Odds = 38:9
- 38:9 can be simplified as 4.2:1 or roughly 4:1
The card odds tell us that the odds of hitting a diamond-suited card is 4:1. This means that there is a possibility that a diamond-suited card is in the deck once every 4 cards. In other words, for every 4 times, you won’t hit a diamond, 1 time you will.
Compare Pot Odds with Card Outs
The golden rule is that thepot odds should be greater than the card outs. When the odds from the pot are bigger than the odds of hitting an out, you will be winning more money than losing in the long run. So, the reward should be bigger than the risk.
Pot Odds > Card Outs
In the above example, we have the following odds:
Pot Odds = 5:1
Card Odds = 4:1
Pot Odds > Card Outs
We should call here as the pot odds are greater than card odds.
Card Odds Chart
It may be very difficult to do the addition and division to find the card odds while playing poker. You can save this card odds chart or print it to paste it on the wall. The chart has the common draw scenarios with the poker outs that you might face while playing poker. With a bit of practice, you will remember the important card odds.
* The last column All-in on the Flop (2 Cards to Come) is in a situation when you or your opponent go all-in on the flop. In an all-in situation, you don’t have to call bets on the turn or river. So, you will see 2 cards till the river. Seeing 2 cards instead of 1 improves your odds.
Let’s look at the example below for a quick exercise.
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Turn: 8♦ K♣ 2♦ J♠
You have a flush draw with 9 outs.
Bet Size #1
Your opponent makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $25 into a pot of $100. The total pot is now $125. You need to call $25 for a chance to win $125.
Pot Odds: 5:1 ($125:$25)
Card Odds: 4.1:1 (Look at the chart)
Pot Odds > Card Odds
Here, you can call as the pot odds are greater than the card odds. This means that you will be winning more money than losing in the long run.
Bet Size #2
In the same example, if your opponent makes a full pot-size bet of $100 into a pot of $100, the total pot becomes $200. You need to call $100 for a chance to win $200.
Pot Odds: 2:1 ($200:$100)
Card Odds: 4.1:1 (Look at the chart)
Card Odds > Pot Odds
Here, the card odds are greater than the pot odds. Although you might hit a flush on the river, calling here won’t be profitable in the long run. So, it will be wise to fold here.
Calculating Pot Odds Using the Percentage Method
Another way of calculating odds in poker is by using the percentage method. There are three simple steps in calculating the odds using the percentage method.
Step 1: Calculate the Final Pot
This is the major difference between the ratio method and the percentage method. In the percentage method, you need to add your call amount to the total pot to calculate the final pot. For example, if there is $6 in the pot and your opponent bets $3, the total pot becomes $9. Now add your call amount, which is $3, to calculate the final pot.
Total Pot = $6 (Already in the pot) + $3 (Opponent’s Bet)
= $9
Final Pot = $9 (Total Pot) + $3 (Call Amount)
= $12
Step 2: Divide the Call Amount by the Final Pot
Call Amount = $3
Final Pot = $12
3/12 = 0.25
Step 3: Multiply by 100
Multiply by 100 to get the percentage.
0.25 X 100 = 25%
So, the pot odds are 25%.
Poker Pot Odds Example Using the Percentage Method
Alert! This can be a bit mathematical but an easy hack to learn the odds quickly is available right after the example.
So, have some patience and continue reading…
Let’s review the example without looking at the hole cards to find the odds percentage.
You are on the Button in a $1/$2 6-max game. The Under the Gun (UTG) calls $2. The Middle Position (MP) raises to $5. Let’s calculate the odds.
Preflop
Total pot = $1 (small blind) +$2 (big blind) + $2 (UTG’s call) + $5 (MP’s raise)
= $10
Amount to Call = $5
Final Pot = $10 (Total Pot) + $5 (Call Amount)
= $15
Pot Odds = $5 (Call Amount) / $15 (Final Pot)
= 0.33
0.33 X 100 = 33%
So, the pot odds are 33%.
You decide to call, and others fold. The total pot is now $15 ($10 in the pot + $5 your call)
Flop
On the flop, the MP makes a half-size pot bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $15 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $22.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Final Pot = $22.5 (Total Pot) + $7.5 (Call Amount)
= $30
Pot Odds = $7.5 (Call Amount) / $30 (Final Pot)
= 0.25
0.25 X 100 = 25%
So, the pot odds are 25%.
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $30 ($22.5 in the pot +$7.5 your call).
Turn
On the turn, the MP makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $7.5. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $30 (already in the pot) + $7.5 (MP’s bet)
= $37.5
Amount to Call = $7.5
Final Pot = $37.5 (Total Pot) + $7.5 (Call Amount)
= $45
Pot Odds = $7.5 (Call Amount) / $45 (Final Pot)
= 0.17
0.17 X 100 = 17%
So, the pot odds are 17%.
You decide to call, and the total pot is now $45 ($37.5 in the pot + $7.5 your call).
River
On the river, the MP makes a full pot-size bet of $45. What are the odds now?
Total Pot = $45 (already in the pot) + $45 (MP’s bet)
= $90
Amount to Call = $45
Final Pot = $90 (Total Pot) + $45 (Call Amount)
= $135
Pot Odds = $45 (Call Amount) / $135 (Final Pot) = 0.33
0.33 X 100 = 33%
So, the pot odds are 33%.
A Shortcut to Know Your Pot Odds Percentage
An easy way to know the odds is to know how much is in the pot and the percentage of the pot your opponent bets.
- What’s the Pot Size?
- What Percentage of the Pot is Your Opponent Betting?
For example, if the pot is $100 and your opponent bets $25, you can say that he is making a 1/4 pot-size bet or he is betting 25% of the pot.
You can save this pot odds chart or print it and paste it on a wall next to your computer.
How is the Percentage used in Poker?
In the percentage method, you need to find the card equity and compare it with odds percentage to make a decision. Card equity is as same as card odds. Instead of using a ratio, it is expressed in percentage.
How to Find Card Equity?
Card equity can be accurate if you know what range of hands your opponents are holding. There are many equity calculators available online. Since this is an introductory chapter on poker pot odds, we will teach you the simplest way to calculate card equity.
On the Flop Waiting for the Turn – Number of Outs X 4
On the Turn Waiting for the River – Number of Outs X 2
Let’s look at the example below to calculate the equity.
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Flop: 8♦ K♣ 9♠
You have an open-ended straight draw with 8 outs.
Equity = 8 outs x 4
= 32%
Turn: 8♦ K♣ 9♠ 2♥
Equity = 8 x 2
= 16%
Compare Pot Odds with Equity
The golden rule is that theequity should be greater than the pot odds. When the equity is greater than the pot odds, you will be winning more money than losing in the long run. Here, the reward is bigger than the risk.
Equity > Pot Odds
Let’s look at the example below to compare the odds and equity.
Your Hand: 7♦ 6♦
Turn: 8♦ K♣ 2♦ J♠
You have a flush draw with 9 outs.
Bet Size #1
Your opponent makes a quarter of a pot-size bet of $25 into a pot of $100. The total pot is now $125. The final pot is $150 (total pot + call amount).
Pot Odds: 17% (25/150 X 100)
Equity: 9 (outs) X 2 (Turn)
= 18%
Equity > Pot Odds
Here, you can call as the equity is greater than the pot odds. This means that you will be winning more money than losing in the long run.
Bet Size #2
In the same example, if your opponent makes a full pot-size bet of $100 into a pot of $100, the total pot becomes $200. The final pot is $300 (total pot + call amount).
Pot Odds: 33% (100/300 X 100)
Equity: 9 (outs) X 2 (Turn)
= 18%
Pot Odds > Equity
Here, the pot odds are greater than the equity. Although you might hit a flush on the river, calling here won’t be profitable in the long run. So, it will be wise to fold here.
An easy way to find out how much equity is required for you to call is to find out the percentage of the pot your opponent bets. Remember these odds against your opponent’s bet sizes.
Conclusion
It might be a little overwhelming for the first time to grasp the concept of pot odds. However, with a bit of practice, you will get used to it. We recommend you to save all the charts or print them and paste it on the wall to take quick decisions. Poker is a mathematical game, and if you get your numbers right, you will always win money in the long run!